Uncategorized Archives - 算法和机械的外汇策略

Making Sense of CFD Trading

六月 18, 2018 由肖恩·奥弗顿发表评论

Contracts for Difference a.k.a. CFDs are derivatives trading instruments between two parties. There are thousands of global markets which can be traded in a CFD format. With CFD trading, you’re essentially speculating on the price movements of financial instruments. These could be bonds, FX pairs, 大宗商品, 指标, or stocks. It doesn’t matter whether the asset prices are rising or falling – all that matters is that you call it correctly. With CFDs, you’re not taking ownership of the underlying asset – you’re simply speculating on price movements. 即便如此, understanding your risk vs. reward in any transaction is essential. In the United Kingdom, there is no stamp duty on profits generated through CFD trading, making this an attractive option for traders and investors.

Other benefits to CFD trading include the fact that it is a terrific hedging tool against losses that you suffer in physical investments. With CFDs, you don’t need to have all the money available upfront to purchase the contract – leverage and margin are used. This is a double-edged sword however since you must assume the pros and cons of leverage. If trades go your way, you will profit from leverage, and if they go against you, you stand to lose more than your initial investment. 然而, many UK traders and European traders enjoy CFD trading since it is a flexible alternative to conventional investments.

CFDs in Action

The concept of a CFD is best understood by way of an example. At inception, you decide the number of CFDs you wish to trade. Every point movement is associated with a specific profit or loss. If markets move in your favour, you will profit off every point. If they don’t, you will incur a loss. CFDs allow traders to go long if they are bullish on the market, or short if they are bearish on the market. It is entirely possible to profit in either direction. One of the most popular uses of CFD trading is hedging. 简单地说, this means that you can use CFDs to prop up your other investments that aren’t doing so well. 例如, if you purchased Google stock through your broker and the price started decreasing, you could open a CFD trade on Google and go short on it to generate profits accordingly. 这样，, you’re minimizing any potential losses through your Google stock. This is true of any asset category – indices, 大宗商品, 外汇, 个股, or bonds.

Any product that you trade on margin opens you up to potentially larger profits or losses. Since you are only paying a fraction of the overall cost of the trade (the contract), you don’t need all of the money upfront. Therefore it is inherently attractive to many traders. Popular CFD trading markets include the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ 100, 在S&P 500, the FTSE 250, the FTSE 100, the Nikkei 225, thousands of stocks, 货币对, commodities like oil, copper, 金, sugar, platinum, natural gas, and bond markets. According to leading CFD provider, Wilkins Finance the best CFD definition is one which explains what a CFD is, how it works, what advantages are involved, and what the current risks are. It must be borne in mind that CFD trading is a high-risk activity and is not suited to all types of traders. If you have a keen grasp of the risks of this type of trading activity, it is certainly an option worth considering.

How to Back Test if a Forex EA is Profitable

一月 12, 2018 由肖恩·奥弗顿 1 评论

所以, you believe you have found a sound forex trading system or Expert Advisor (她) and you are feeling ready to dip your toe in the water. It’s important not to rush in and instead take a step back to thoroughly test the strategy or EA through back testing.

Before we look at how to test if an Expert Advisor is profitable, first let’s look at what forex back testing actually is?

Forex back testing allows you to test the EA in order to see whether it actually does what it should do. Any forex trading system is completely useless if it doesn’t do what you expected it to do. Back testing uses historical data to enable you to see how the EA would have performed. By entering the historical data, you would be able to see which trades your EA would have recommended to you. This way you can check whether the EA is going to work for your chosen trading style and individual goals. 此外, this process allows you to understand in more depth how your EA works and to identify flaws in the system.

回溯测试 is time consuming but it is worth it. It is important to back test in both a bull and bear market and to collect sufficient data so that you know how your EA will perform regardless of whether the market is rising or falling. 另一个点, is the more accurate the data you use, the more precise your back testing will be. 因此, it is preferential to use accurate historical data rather than indicative data and also use a realistic level for slippage.

Forex back testing is an essential part of developing and using a forex trading system. 然而, it is important to keep in mind that the results your back testing give you are based on past performance, which is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Back testing will help you feel more confident about the ability of an EA, but it is important to remember that no amount of back testing can guarantee future profits.

Where can I back test?

MetaTrader的 4 offers its users a Strategy Tester feature. This is simple to use and enables you to select the EA you installed from the Expert Advisor choices. For this you would need to have the MT4 platform. The most capable brokers offer their clients the MT4 platform. One such broker is Vantage FX, they are an award-winning forex ECN broker. Not only do they offer their clients MT4, but also some of the tightest spreads in the industry and unparalleled execution.

The Secret for Trading a Double Top

一月 30, 2017 由 Lior 衣柜发表评论

The double top pattern is no doubt among the simplest and most familiar price patterns in technical analysis. 通常情况下, a double top pattern is followed by a sell off. 从理论上讲, this rather simple pattern should be easy for traders to pounce on and yet, too often, it’s a cause for frustration. That’s because the realization that a pattern has formed comes too late and, as a result, there’s little room for profit. But before you become discouraged there is an effective strategy – a tactic, if you will – that will allow a trader to recognize a double top and, at least most of the time, ride on the trend reversal, just in time to profit.

Spotting a Double Top

The first part in trading a double top is spotting the double top on time. I like to call it the two-step verification.

As we can see in the chart below, the second wave has reached a climax in Point A. Seemingly, that is still a bullish sign because Point A is higher than the previous peak. But there is more to the picture than meets the eye. If we stretch a trend line from the previous top we can see that Point A signals some sort of slowdown; it is lower than Point X where the trendline indicates it 应 be. That is the first confirmation. If the top of the wave is lower than the trendline indicates, it is the first cue that a double top might be forming.

The second sign emerges in Point B, where the wave, rather than ending in the supporting bullish trendline below it, ends much lower. That is our second confirmation.

So why do those two occurrences signify that a double top is coming? Because when the top of the wave is lower than what the trend warrants, it suggests that the price range is shifting lower. Because the wave bounced back at Point Z, it confirmed that a double top is coming and that the price range is shifting lower.

Entry and Stop Loss

After you recognized that the double top is, 事实上, coming, the next phase would, 当然, be to place your entry and stop loss.

The ideal place to open a short under a double top would be just above the shoulder of the wave that signalled the double top; in the chart below this is wave one. 通知, 然而, that the actual entry comes at wave number two. This requires discipline; if the following wave does not hit our sell point just above the shoulder of wave number one, we do not enter.

The reason? We want to minimize our stop loss risk. Our stop loss should be placed slightly above the top of wave one; if we enter too early we will be forced to take more risk in our stop loss and we could end up profiting much less.

Setting Your Target

When setting a target for your short the most important aspect to consider is the timeframe you are trading. The longer the timeframe, the higher the likelihood that the double top will lead to a significant sell off. But the shorter the duration, the higher the likelihood that what you are witnessing is part of a correction within a bigger trend.

In the above example, we are witnessing a macro trend that lasted years and thus the likelihood that a major correction will follow this double top is high. Under such a case, the trader might set his target for a full reversal.

There is one noticeable trade off in trading a double top on a long-term trend; 有时, there may be several failed (single top) attempts to break higher rather than a single double top before the correction begins. That means that while the potential gain is higher it may take longer to materialize.

因此, if the double top you are trading belongs to a trend that lasts several days, or even several weeks, the prudent target should be at the lowest point of wave one in the double top. This will usually correspond with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Since our entry has been above the shoulder of wave one, it should provide a fair gain potential relative to the risk.

结论, it should be noted that it does not mean that if you’re trading a trend with a shorter time horizon that you cannot expect an utter trend change and a bigger potential. What it does mean is that you are just taking the risk that it might be part of a bigger bullish trend. If that is the case, then your stop loss could be hit before the limit is reached. But once again, this is just a risk you must decide if you are willing to take for a potentially bigger profit.

当然, as I always like to stress, there is no perfect strategy. It is always advisable to use indications to get some contrast on the trade you are about to take, regardless of the strategy. But if performed with discipline, and considering that a double top pattern is so common, this strategy could come in handy.

Lessons from a Decade of Trading the JPY

十二月 20, 2016 由 Lior 衣柜 1 评论

The past decade has been a turbulent one for the Japanese Yen, or the JPY as it’s familiarly known. The Yen’s multi-year bullish trend which started in the 1990s ended and it flipped into a brutal bearish correction. 此外, the Bank of Japan embarked on an unprecedented journey of more and more Quantitative Easing, effectively printing trillions of Yens to revive its stagnant economy. And finally, let us not forget the tsunami that hit Japan’s coastline in 2011 which tragically took a very hefty toll in human lives and which sent jitters across Yen pairs.

所以, why am I dwelling on this? Because this decade of Yen turbulence has provided us with some very important trading lessons on the JPY, specifically, and on trading, in general. 在这篇文章中, I will elaborate on two important lessons for both the novice and experienced traders that I’ve learned through trading which may not be immediately intuitive.

JPY Lesson on Natural Disasters

In the period that preceded the 2011 tsunami, I was expecting a major turnaround specifically in the trend of the USD/JPY, and in the Japanese Yen, 一般. As I’ve often said, the longer the duration of your trade the more fundamentals will have an impact on the trend. Back in 2010-2011, I was focusing on the Japanese Yen which was in a multi-year bullish trend and so fundamentals were critical. Japan’s economy was suffering from persistent deflation and weak economic performance and that warranted a massive stimulus. 当然, any form of stimulus, either monetarily from the central bank or fiscally from the government, usually means a weaker currency. And so, that meant the end of the Yen’s strength and the start of a bullish trend in the USD/JPY (which moves in reverse). That meant that the bearish trend of 13 years would finally come to an end. 当然, that is provided stimulus would be forthcoming, which I thought was very likely.

然后, 3 日 11, 2011, the tsunami hit the coast of Japan. And as hysteria hit the markets, the USD/JPY plunged. Investors were crowding in to safety and speculation grew that the Yen’s long-term trend of appreciation would intensify as investors sought shelter.

The USD/JPY tested the 76 level and bounced back after a concerted effort by central banks across the world. Several months later, the pair finally bottomed out at a slightly lower level of 75. And the bullish rebound, aka weaker JPY, started in 2012.

What is the lesson? The lesson is that natural disasters in large economies, even severe ones, generally cannot change the long-term economic fundamentals and, 因此, cannot change a currency’s long-term trajectory. The JPY eventually had its trajectory to playout, 即. 底部, and the rebound took place only a few months later.

That means that even a disaster of this magnitude should not change your long-term strategy. Since a natural disaster can create short-term volatility it could present an opportunity to ride a long-term trend or a long-term turnaround at a more convenient entry.

日元: Leg Down Vs Double Bottom

When we look at the USD/JPY bottoming out during 2012, we can see a rather interesting pattern. Rather than a double bottom warranted after a multi-year bearish trend (bullish JPY), what we see is a bullish wave right after the last bearish wave. The intermediate zone between is uncharacteristically short and the range uncharacteristically narrow. One common mistake is just to assume we had a swift bottoming out process, but the real answer is that that is a leg down and not a double bottom.

The key difference between a leg down and a double bottom is highly practical from a trading standpoint. On a double bottom the rebound takes much longer, with the pair fluctuating at lower levels for longer. Once the short sellers are shaken off, the rebound begins. 另一方面, in a leg down scenario the rebound is much quicker. But there is a price for that quick rebound. Because a leg down does not validate a change of trend, our prudent assumption should be that the bearish trend line should be respected and we should target Point X rather than Point M, at the peak of the last wave. 最后, a leg down would mean another leg down is required over the long run and that means that we should be alert to a potential change over the very long run.

What is the lesson? A leg down means a quicker rebound but with a lower potential while a double bottom means a slower rebound but one that lasts much longer. 和, 当然, we should always be on alert for another leg down. It should be noted, 然而, that that might take a long while especially in the case in which Point M is broken, which would signal a much wider rebound.

Using Dow Theory in Forex

十月 19, 2016 由 Lior 衣柜 2 评论

There’s hardly a trader, whether short term or long term, who doesn’t rely, in some form or another, on technical analysis. Yet many don’t know that the backstory behind what we today refer to as technical analysis is actually a collection of ideas on trading stocks. Some of those ideas are, 事实上, more than a hundred years old; they are referred to collectively as Dow Theory. Going into the source, the so-called genesis of technical analysis can provide valuable lessons for a trader, even today and even in Forex. In this article I will go into some basic concepts of Dow Theory and offer my personal takeaways from it.

第一, 虽然, the backstory. The Dow Theory is named after Charles Dow, a financial journalist and one of the founders of the world-renowned Wall Street Journal. Dow had written a series of articles on his theories and concepts on market behavior, pricing and patterns for the Wall Street Journal. Those ideas were later developed further, refined and enhanced by followers such as William P. Hamilton, Robert Rhea and Richard Russell. The collection of ideas known as the Dow Theory therefor, encompasses concepts from Dow and his followers.

Dow Theory Concepts

With that brief history of the Dow Theory behind us, it’s time to get into the meat and focus on some key concepts and how they could be implemented when trading Forex.

I like to think of the Dow Theory as having two pillars—one theoretical, the other practical. The theoretical concepts focus on how to approach the market, the so-called theory behind trading.

The practical ideas are focused on things such as rising tops and bottoms, which confirm a bullish trend, and/or rising volumes, which confirms a trend’s strength. Since most practical ideas belong to basic technical analysis such as stretching a trend line, I will focus on the theoretical side which is often overlooked by traders.

Combining the two pillars should give the trader the proper approach and the necessary tools to beat the market.

Concept

The Dow theoretical side focuses on the benefits of the bigger picture. 换句话说, it focuses on what the broad market is doing rather than a specific asset or security or, in our case, a specific pair. 为什么?

Over the longer term, the broad market cannot be manipulated by any one player. It is true that over short durations, the broad market can be manipulated, but unlike a stock or a security, over the long haul there is no one factor with enough liquidity to manipulate the long term trend. That means that in order to profit one must first gauge the long term trend of the broad market, and only then can one make a decision on the next trade.

此外, according to the Dow Theory, the broad market prices all the knowns and even the potential unknowns that have a higher probability of occurring. 换句话说, the broad market is so big and diversified that the current trend and price behavior prices all the known positive and negative information as well as all that market participants believe could happen.

Dow in Forex

Although the Dow Theory was initially designed for analyzing stocks, the concepts stated above can provide some powerful insights into the Forex markets. If we refine the two concepts we get one clear idea; that is the best way to predict markets is to focus on the big picture and that means focusing on the long term and focusing on the broad market rather than a signal pair.

That means that focusing on the long term trend over months, and even years, can yield much better results than focusing on shorter durations. 此外, in a more practical sense, longer duration charts tend to be easier to analyze with support, resistance and trends much easier to define. 亲自, it is one of the key reasons that I prefer long term trades. 当然, short term traders can be highly lucrative and successful as well, but focusing on the long term trend is essential for crafting a strategy that could work over the long run. It allows you to identify areas of high volatility, areas where a pair is destined to have resistance, or areas where short term support can be broken.

Another important takeaway is focusing on the broad market. How does that come to play in Forex? It means that you should always aspire to analyze the big trend. In practical terms, it means, 例如, that you should always analyze the Dollar Index before trading a dollar pair, to figure out the long term trend on the dollar. It also means that, if you trade a low liquidity pair such as the USD/BRL, you should first identify the overall trend in the FX market, risk on or risk off.

下面的示例所示, the EURUSD is trending higher which means a bearish Dollar. But on the other hand in the second chart , the Dollar Index which represents the Dollar against a basket of currencies, is trending higher as well suggesting the exact opposite, a bullish dollar. Since Dollar index represents the big picture for the Dollar it is the one we should relate to when determining the long term trend.

底线

当然, there are many more takeaways and more layers to the Dow Theory and it is always a good idea to go over the original books and learn from the source, whether it’s the articles by Charles Dow himself or The Stock Market Barometer written by William P. Hamilton and The Dow Theory by Robert Rhea. 但, as an experienced trader, through the years I have found that the best takeaway from the Dow Theory is that its emphasis on the big picture improves your chances to avoid manipulation and areas of unexpected market reactions which, in turn, makes a strategy more successful. It doesn’t mean that you have to trade only over the long term but it does mean that you have to first figure out the long term before anything else.

Trading the Symmetrical Triangle

十月 3, 2016 由 Lior 衣柜 2 评论

I always like to say, that in any trading strategy, you should only be exposed to the market when absolutely necessary. 就是说, whether it’s a strategy running on daily intervals or on monthly intervals, a trader should not stay in the market longer than needed because it leaves room for the unexpected. This is especially true when it comes to momentum strategies and it can be the difference between gain and pain. The Symmetrical Triangle strategy is one that is simple and effective enough to let you gain from momentum, without staying a second longer than necessary. The strategy relies on a pattern that, no surprise, is called the Symmetrical Triangle.

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

So what is the symmetrical triangle pattern? 简单地说, it is a pattern that enables you to buy into a correction and sell before the pair peaks again.

In order to identify a symmetrical triangle pattern, we have to watch for four unique yet symbiotic conditions.

The pair has to be in a long term bullish trend.
The pair has to be in the midst of a temporary correction.
The correction has to be in the shape of a triangle with lower highs.
The momentum of the correction has to converge with the oscillator, as seen in the MACD chart below.

The buy signal comes at a very specific time. That is after the pair breaks the correction pattern and oscillator (在这种情况下, MACD指标) moves back above zero and ascends into buy territory.

The symmetry of the triangle is what helps us determine our limit. The symmetry does not have to come in the shape of a symmetrical triangle on the upward move. 事实上, only one element should be symmetrical—the highs. The highs from where the pair breaks the correction pattern (see point A) should be identical to the highs of the triangle.

Using the grid to measure the height, if the height of our triangle is three and a half squares we should stretch point A three and a half squares to point B.

The Idea Behind the Strategy

So what is the idea behind the Symmetrical Triangle?

To get the answer, we need to start with the end result.

The chart shows that the pair has continued above point B (which was our target), yet the symmetry rule made us exit the trade early. 为什么? The idea is that when you have a triangle break that fulfilled the aforementioned conditions it tends to generate a move higher, 至少 the same height as the triangle from the point of the break. 如果, 例如, the bullish trend would have been over, the pair would have topped out a little above point B. But if we were targeting G, a higher point, and stayed too long, we could have ended up with pain rather than gain. But the symmetry method allows us to take a profit even if the pair was about to top out and reverse.

When we add the entry methodology that allowed us to enter the trade early with minimal risk the picture become clear. The symmetrical triangle is an “in and out quick” strategy that minimizes risk in both directions. The entry is right at the bottom of the correction and the exit point is distant enough to make it a worthwhile trade and quick enough to avoid a potential trend reversal.

Before You Start

当然, as with any strategy, including the Symmetrical Triangle, there is no singular perfect strategy that can always guarantee profit. The major downside to the Symmetrical Triangle strategy is that the pattern does not occur every time. 例如, in the waves that followed we can see there were no lower tops when the pair corrected, just a steep descent towards the support line. That means that the Symmetrical Triangle is a low frequency strategy—it provides an entry signal only every once in a while.

自然, that means you cannot rely on this strategy alone for profits because it may take time between each opportunity. 但, when balanced with other strategies, the Symmetrical Triangle can certainly spice up your results and allow you to improve your trading performance each time it produces a burst of momentum.

在黄金价格中发现支点

九月 15, 2015 由 Lior 衣柜 1 评论

黄金很难预测. 常, 当它似乎加紧对看跌的势头, 它停止和翻转. 它也常常看起来看好只融化并携带它公牛队的. 当然, 这种不确定性是交易的固有的一部分, 尤其是当它来到金. 这意味着你必须投入更多的努力，在识别可能突破和支点，使我们能够计划我们的行业. 在这篇文章中, 我们将专注于如何衍生工具可以帮助您发现黄金价格准确支点.

黄金价格通过衍生品

黄金的真正问题是它可以下降或迅速上升, 没有警告. 这使得难以对那些贸易它，仿佛它是一个外汇交易对现货的机会. 然而, 这些蓝色的快速动作, 在许多情况下, 紧密联系在一起衍生品市场, 就像任何其他商品一样，大多数的黄金交易发生. 在我以前的文章关于隐含波动率之一, 我演示了如何衍生工具可以帮助您监控波动相对容易. 但是支点呢? 你猜对了: 衍生品 — — 或, 更具体地说, 选项，芝加哥商业交易所的价格 — — 可能是在这方面相当方便, 太. 怎么样? 通过向我们展示什么价格大多数的赌注都集中.

在黄金上使用选项分析

下面继续医学教育选项分析说明提出了 (短) 和电话 (长) 选项打开黄金不惜任何代价. 橙色的列都提出了, 蓝色的是电话 — — 换句话说, 卖家与买家. 在中间的垂直红线是目前的价格. 现在, 什么这意味着和地狱又怎能有助于我们找到支点? 很简单. 橙色的所有列 (提出了) 左边的红线 (时价) 做空等待股价会下跌呢, 而蓝色的所有列 (调用) 多头头寸等待股价会下跌呢.

在中可以看出 1,100 价格, 短的赌注都压倒性高于多头头寸. 这将导致一个相当简单的结论: 如果黄金价格交叉低于 1,100 级别, 它会立即触发一堆卖出期权和触发强烈的看跌波, 标志着一个非常重要的支点我们应该看看从. 如果你长时间在黄金, 休息下 1,100 也许是一个迹象，纾困, 而如果你是一个卖空者, 你可能想要等待黄金十字下面 1,100 对于看跌势头加快.

CME 集团

当然, 这是价格的可能发生在我们右侧的一面镜子, 在哪里 1,150 有成堆的看涨期权等待金超越. 如你看到的, 这是远远低于提出了下面的桩 1,100 但它仍然很大，使我们上部的支点.

在左边的红线 (我们当前的价格下面的选项), 如果看涨期权的数量明显高于提出了 — — 许多在看涨赌注 1,100 — — 它就会受到牵制 1,100 作为一个强大的支持区. 当然, 再一次在左边的动力学 (当前价格之上) 会的这一面镜子. 这个所谓的屏幕是本质上是 CME 秩序书 — — 就像当你看着您自己的帐户就买，卖单, 这说明了买和卖出期权的整个 CME 交易所黄金和我们. 这意味着我们可以看到更广阔的市场是其下注何地看到枢轴, 和计划好多我们下一个黄金交易.

了解超买和超卖

二月 26, 2015 由理查德错误发表评论

如果你正在做饭的东西，你检查它，你看到它是 “过度的” 或 “煮过头”, 什么是你的第一反应? 确切地. 你把盘子拿出烤箱. 删除从是什么导致其当前的过火了的状态和越快越好.

太晚了我们下面的鸡宴…

如果你的汽车的发动机 “过热”? 同样的事情…你做什么才能让发动机冷却下来. 立即停止做什么造成引擎放在第一位成为过热.

鉴于这些自然反应, 它很容易被许多新的贸易商到明白为什么最初，几乎立即举措 “超买” 或 “超卖” 交易场景是做相反在这种情况下，以及.

他们的理由是，因为很多买 (长) 订单转移价格上涨，推动了指标进入超买区域, 我们必须做相反的，并采取短 (卖) 位置. 反过来, 如果很多人卖订单导致价格下降，进入超卖的领域我们多开始采取多头头寸. 它是几乎一样，虽然他们期望价格反弹像橡皮筋一样，当它到达这些过度的区.

很好…什么是本能鸡晚餐和汽车发动机的适宜的反应不一定是正确的反应时的交易.

重要的是要记住，重要的是，当指标进入超买/超卖区, 它可以在那里呆很长一段时间. 只是因为 RSI 或随机指标例如读取超买, 并不意味着对一对价格行为就像是一个紧密压缩的弹簧，是要立即弹回向超卖区.

让我们来看看下面的NZDJPY对历史的日线图的这样的一个例子…

这个图表，当慢速随机指标去上面的通知 80 (在红色矩形) 进入超买区, 价格继续上涨的另一 780+ 点子和随机留超买的全部时间. 明确一名交易员做空，当它第一次当进入超买区域会有错过了上一项重大举措. 他们也会有得到了停止从其空头头寸很快.

若要查看示例的地方价格撤退时慢速随机指标进入超买区域，我们需要看没有进一步比标记的区域 “一” 在图表上. 在此情况下周围烛台 “一”, 十字星, 陀螺, 射击之星和锤子, 表明了回调的可能性.

要提出的问题是，或场景可以玩出这么没有一个本能的反应指标的超买和超卖区.

记得…

只需要由那些在较长期趋势的方向指标进入信号.

例如, 如果这种趋势一直是强劲而持久的上攻, 按理说，该指标将在超买区域，因为它反映价格走势的利多推. 在这一点上采取空头头寸会贸易针对的趋势，这将是引入更多风险纳入贸易.

良好的交易,

理查德错误

RKrivoFX@gmail.com

RKrivoFX

使用最大杠杆增长利润，降低风险

一月 12, 2015 由埃迪花 9 评论

的收益会迅速积累，当一个道具交易者使用基于有限的账户规模最大的杠杆策略. 为了维护和建立这些收益, 重要的是从交易账户按一个好的计划将其删除.

正如本系列中描述在以前的文章, 高杠杆, 采用领先的道具商人低的平衡策略，可以使用不同的系统被应用到多个交易账户, 由不超过一对夫妇更千元大写每个帐户.

在帐户中的量通常之间的范围 $1,000 到几千元不等. 这样，, 有没有心理障碍，采用最大杠杆在每次交易.

减少支取的风险

当你有一个成功的系统, 利润堆积. 人们很容易“让它骑”使用相同的系统，在不断增长的账号交易越来越大的位置大小.

然而, 当整个资本在交易账户可用, 这意味着暴露于不可避免系统都“爆破,“这通常会导致一个陡峭缩编. 即使交易者逃脱金融灾难, 他或她可能会变得厌恶风险之后才能成为优柔寡断和无效的.

抽出资金每月

聪明的办法，以避免过度支取因交易系统“的打击起坐”，就是要抽出资金账户在每次成功月底. 这样，, 当主要发生提款, 它不会采取一切你的钱, 只是你能承受失去对夫妇一千美元.

成功的交易者的道具像肖恩连夺利润月度每个获奖交易账户并将它们移到一个非交易账户, 他们保持安全的地方. 所以, 每个月的交易账户与个人资本设定在给定的量开.

拉出至少足以覆盖一个“炸毁”

一旦你发动你的外汇系统, 你要想想专款专用足够的资金来支付至少一个交易系统故障. 当你担保的金额用于您的交易账户的资本重组, 以后每增益为“免费的钱,在心理意义上的“至少.

第一个里程碑是拉足够的钱了交易账户，以支付至少一个灾难. 如果你已经享受大都获胜个月, 接下来，你应该分配 50% 你的利润高风险系统.

你不能失去什么没有风险

记住: 当一个道具交易者是用最大杠杆, 唯一的钱是安全的资金已经退出了交易账户. 利润应该从每个获奖的交易账户上拉, 每个月.

当一个道具交易者胜一贯使用高杠杆在有限的尺寸账户, 从相对小的个别行业的收益可能会迅速加剧. 从四溢的小交易账户聚集的利润可以复合成大笔, 并有效地管理这些利润是很重要.

如果您想了解更多关于使用最大杠杆每个月拉动利润, 刚刚接触肖恩.

封锁极性振荡器

七月 16, 2014 由埃迪花发表评论

外汇封锁交易策略是最简单的方法之一纪律独立的商人，从货币价格波动中获利. 它的机械交易系统一个伟大的战略，因为它依赖于极性振荡，只有一些其他的指标和参数, 它可以很容易地进行编程. 它非常适合用于交易5分钟的时间框架.

最好的, 当封锁策略进行交易，结合相关的反转策略, 有经验的交易者可以通过“倒卖”极性振荡器获利.

外汇封锁策略使用二十日均线 (20 妈妈) 单独或与中间布林带组合, 作为极性振荡，表明可能初试和复试的价格水平. 取决于市场上, 这种组合通常提供的机械交易系统的外汇封锁点，最准确的评估.

交易商还应该确认信号从附近的轮数的价格水平, 枢轴点, 支持和阻力.

这种策略被称为“封锁”，因为 20 EMA或极性振荡器作为两边价格壁垒. 如果价格在EMA和住在它上面, 然后价格重新测试该均线, 它可能会反弹并持续走高.

同样，, 如果价格下 20 EMA然后重新测试它, 交易系统的偏见是“短”，而且价格可能会拒绝和更低的移动.

使用极性振荡贸易封锁

一个典型的极性振荡器结合均线和布林中搭伴. 在本文附带的图表, 20 EMA被示为实线的黄色, 而合并后的极性振荡器显示为黄色的流. 例如, 下面的图表上, 圆圈所示为极性振荡器看涨信号.

当然, 在20天的EMA复检是信号的肉. 使用极性振荡器作为组合EMA-Bolly波段指示符增加的信号的可靠性, 并给出了外汇交易员对市场的清晰的画面.

下面是更多样的图表显示了外汇封锁策略:

改变极性和偏见

在最右侧的图表上面, 如果货币对的价格令人信服地关闭上述 20 妈妈, 这意味着它已经切换极性和交易系统现在改变为一个长的偏置.

展望未来, 机械交易系统将准备当货币的价格下降下来，倒是卖 20 妈妈.

当贸易封锁

外汇封锁策略可以应用到任何货币对. 它可以在任何的几个时间间隔进行交易, 但一些最成功的交易者封锁的工作，5分钟的时间框架.

和, 这种策略可以随时在交易时段进行买卖, 但一段时间范围内提供更可靠的交易. 作为一个例子, 有可能是一个很好的突破和复试, 所以外汇交易员进入交易.

但, 在亚洲下午的会议可能会很慢. 然后, 在开幕式在伦敦的价格可能会波动太大入境. 最后, 波动从新闻公告最初乱舞之后, 价格可能会解决，这样它的再次流通.

所以, 交易者必须调整外汇封锁策略，以适应每个市场和会话.

一天中的时间

为了获得最佳的成功, 外汇封锁策略，应在优化流动资金次被交易. 在对天时间在一个特定的货币市场是非常重要的: 封锁要求的流动性, 所以最好的应用时，主要贸易中心是最活跃.

亚洲, 交易外汇封锁的最佳时间是经过东京和新加坡开始交易货币. 和, 欧洲时段在交易时, 伦敦和法兰克福应该进入任何交易之前开.

为封锁外汇策略基本交易规则

•使用建立趋势或偏见 20 EMA或其他极性振荡器

•当价格比舒适的极性振荡指标越高, 该趋势看涨

•当价格低于交易指标低, 那么趋势是看跌

•价格测试极性指标, 然后拒绝它，离开

•一旦进一步的确认是通过附近的轮数的价格水平显示, 枢轴点, 或支撑和阻力, 行业进入

•通过买入止损进入的行业或卖出，止损订单在价格前面设置一个或两个点子

•最好是设置上述极性指标抛售止损的止损单, 和下面的极性指标买入止损

•处于危险之中，在量的两倍设定盈利目标的交易

•一旦价格达到等于初始风险的收益额, 移动止损到盈亏平衡

如何量化成功的复检?

如果货币价格是在 20 EMA它必须从反弹，并保持其上方. 和, 当价格在EMA, 它必须反弹，并保持其下方.

对于编程机械外汇交易系统, 信号规则: 第一烛台触摸 20 EMA预计将在两者同一侧，它从最初接触.

这第一个烛台是买卖信号. 一旦价格已经从拒绝离开 20 妈妈, 交易系统等待由下一个烛台一个可能的确认. 如果下一个时间周期的烛台显示持续举离 20 妈妈, 交易信号确认.

一个外汇封锁多个确认, 更好

机械外汇交易系统输入任何交易前，应使用多个确认. 除了依靠复试和拒绝在 20 EMA展现封锁, 这种策略是比较可靠的，当其他几个指标和参数用于. 这些措施包括确认，如附近的圆形数字的价格水平, 枢轴点, 支持和阻力水平.

该机械的外汇交易系统从来不从价格抑制纯粹基于贸易很重要 20 妈妈. 理想的情况下, 附近的支撑位和阻力位, 轮数的价格水平, 和任何其他显著的价格也应确认交易的方向和时机.

外汇交易者也应慎重筛选出未了业务公告和新闻的影响. 成功的外汇交易者封锁之前预定的新闻发布会或新闻发布往往下降三四45分钟内交易, 并等待消息公布后至少十五分钟才考虑是否接受行业.

同样，, 一个成功的结果的可靠性提高，如果外汇封锁贸易是在相同的方向作为当前趋势. 这可以根据的哪一侧来确定 20 EMA或极性振荡器货币的价格目前位于.

入学资格和订单

资格

•价格是趋势 - 它打破了一系列或合并的入场信号之前，

•价格成功复验 20 妈妈

订单

一些外汇交易员划分其作品在两个或更多的订单，因此他们将有更多的灵活性, 而另一些只需将一个单一的挂单.

对于长项, 使用多个入口点:

•广场 2 买入止损在一个入口点 2 点子上面的确认烛高;

•将订单到期在每个新的蜡烛的开始. 所以, 例如, 基于五分钟图表的时间内，当交易, 如果限价订单设置，他们将在接下来的五分钟烛台年初到期，除非当前五分钟烛台期间价格行为引发;

•将止损单 2 信号烛台下点子, 这是一个触及20日均线;

•止损单也可以放在后面附近摆动点或支持，阻力位;

•如果同时入门价格交易多个订单, 设置为一阶的盈利目标在点子的风险等量. 所以, 例如, 如果在贸易中的外汇交易商的总风险 20 点子, 对于第一阶利润目标被设定在相同 20 点子;

•二阶设定的盈利目标是计算点数的风险加倍. 继续上面的例子, 对于二阶将盈利目标 40 点子;

对于短项, 有多个入口点:

•广场 2 在一个入口点卖出，止损单 2 下面的确认蜡烛低点子;

•长的行业作为, 短项外汇交易应设置抛售止损订单到期在每个新的蜡烛的开始;

•将止损单 2 点子在信号烛台, 这是一个触及20日均线;

•止损单也可以放在后面附近摆动点或支持，阻力位;

•长项作为, 利润目标设定在相等于该行业的总风险表现在点子. 所以, 如果在贸易中的外汇交易商的总风险 20 点子, 对于第一阶利润目标被设定在相同 20 点子; 和, 二阶的盈利目标定为点数的总风险双;

跟踪止损实现利润目标

一旦货币价格已经由总量等于初始的风险毫不逊色感动, 第一位置已达到其盈利目标，并关闭了. 同时, 机械交易系统改变了止损订单上的其余位置到盈亏平衡水平.

继续上面的例子相同, 一旦价格已经转移 20 在有利的方向点子, 第一位置关闭，在剩余的位置止损设定在下一增量.

其余位置的追踪止损留在盈亏平衡点，直到市场关闭退出交易, 无论是实现下一个盈利目标，或通过触发停在盈亏平衡水平. 无论第二位置的性能, 第一个位置的涨幅是显著奖.

封锁逆转

封锁逆转的封锁外汇交易策略的变种. 它同样采用了极性指标如均线或组合 20 EMA及布林中频带. 该变种交易基础上的两个指标结合起来，在极振荡器交叉货币. 在这里图表, 振荡器显示为收缩或扩大黄色带.

在封锁逆转, 价格将停止, 反其方向, 并通过极性振荡，最后才返回从另一个侧面复试振荡器.

在下面的图表, 亚洲时段 (以蓝色显示) 下面经历一个相当狭窄的波段逐渐降价, 未能在当天的中央枢纽后 (黄线) 早些时候交易时段.

价格再继续下跌, 通过每周的支点切片 (蓝线) 拖延和扭转在附近的轮数的价格水平前 (灰线).

封锁逆转

下一个, 价格移动到，迟疑亚洲时段结束, 当从下面的极性振荡器的最终浪涌推价朝向轮数量级. 这代表在其20日均线和布林中频带将跨越水平.

以上图表, 左侧圆圈显示看涨进场信号. 右侧圆圈显示了一个收盘高于目前的价格区间另一个看涨进场信号, 由白线所表示.

外汇封锁与反封锁之间的差异

外汇封锁策略包括等待趋势的确认, 然后交易价格反弹在相同的方向上的趋势极性振荡器.

封锁反转策略开始发挥作用，一旦这一趋势结束, 而且价格逆转，并关闭在极性振荡器的另一部位.

两者的这两个相关的策略进行交易，在相同的方向上的当前趋势, 其中，当货币的价格上极振荡器的特殊侧关闭确定.

看跌反转

前面的例子显示了外汇封锁逆转了乐观预期交易. 上图显示了相反的情况 - 从下面的极性振荡器看跌的交易进入.

在当前的例子, 升浪已经结束，价格已经打破，并根据极性振荡反复关闭. 看跌的技术信号 (盘旋) 下面发生的极性振荡器.

倒票极性振荡器

同样的交易时段均部署在外汇封锁与反封锁的战略合作可以帮助在很长一段时间将交易成功时，价格区间震荡. 精明的交易者使用两种策略在一起作为EMA-倒票策略.

外汇封锁交叉策略

与基本的外汇封锁策略和反转变异, 各种相关的封锁交叉策略还可以与专家顾问的力量开发 (她) 和编程的机械交易系统看货币的价格打破了渠道和趋势强烈. 由于多功能性, 外汇交易封锁提供了一个赚钱的机会， “头皮” 在EMA和其他极性振荡器.

你在你自己的交易使用类似的策略?